Fool Me Once… Weather.com, Tennis and the Notorious Irene

A few short years ago, I played tennis once a year, in Montauk, with my mother. That has changed. A quick count of the dots on back of my Central Park Tennis permit shows 24+ visits to the courts beginning in June when my physical therapist gave me permission to return to the clay following my trapeze injury in December…

In any case, the point is that I have become, one might say, obsessed with tennis. And, as such, I have become similarly preoccupied with the weather.com iPhone app (despite the fact that prior versions have been known to do all kinds of weird things to the phone, including crashing programs and the overall device). Often the first thing I do – before getting out of bed in the morning – is check the weather: current, hour by hour, day by day, and, as of this weekend, severe alerts and videos. And I have been known to repeat this process many times throughout the day

I have come to learn a number of things. First, as I should have recalled from my education in statistics, % likelihood of rain is a misleading statistic. 80% chance of rain – or even 100% chance of rain, as is predicted for Sunday – does not mean that it will rain all day. In fact, a 5-minute passing shower fulfills the prediction of rain but does little to impede my tennis other than causing me to regrip my racket more often, and to consider leaving my iPhone in my locker.  (In fact, the photo to the right was taken first thing in the morning on a day that included hours of tennis that very afternoon.)

I’ve also learned – much against my nature – to be optimistic. 30% chance of rain, as my friend Gary pointed out, means 70% chance that it won’t rain.

So where does this leave me on the eve of Hurricane Irene’s visit to the Northeast corridor? Unfortunately or fortunately, I feel skeptical. 100% chance of rain on Sunday has, in fact, compelled me to cancel my plans to go to the US Open to watch the players practice, and has motivated me to select an indoor venue for my birthday dinner – despite my publicly stated summer birthday policy. However, 4-11% chance of a hurricane and 72% chance of tropical storm conditions has not “at this point in time” deterred me from going forward with said birthday plans, or inspired me to give up my prime parking spot to return my car to the garage.

I hear warnings and forecasts on New York One and from friends and family on Facebook – including one in Hong Kong, who implores me not to underestimate the storm. But I look at the maps and zones and am not convinced. Nor are my porter and doorman. So, I’ve decided to be a weather optimist – at least for the moment. This is not meant to be a recommendation for others in more precarious situations, and, well is subject to change, but I’m curious to see how this weekend unfolds… so much so that I’ll surely be closely connected to my weather.com app – at least until the cell towers get knocked out and I run out of power….

Geolocation: What Are Thou to Me? Part IV

Each day, foursquare has a unique impact on my life as I watch the way in which it influences my city, myself, and , increasingly, my world. I decided therefore, a few months after joining the network – May 20th, 2010 – , to keep a little diary of my new life with foursquare

You have now entered Part IV this ongoing journal – tracking the personal, sociological and historic milestones associated with the rapidly growing service/game/application. Check my archives for Chapters I, II and III.

Monday, July 5th

On Saturday, I checked into NYC Taxi 6H89 and found that it was already in the foursquare database – entered manually by a regular (not super) user. This surprised me as I’m used to frantically entering the number of the taxi and classifying the location as transportation and then taxi… before reaching my destination and figuring out my payment method and tip. Are we reaching some kind of critical foursquare taxi mass? Or was this simply a very neat coincidence – particularly since I don’t take many taxis and there are more than 13,000 yellow taxis in New York City. In either case, an interesting milestone.

This week, foursquare obtained $20 million in funding, and Dennis Crowley “checked in” at the World Cup in South Africa. Nice.

To write the taxi paragraph above, I had to go to my online profile to get the taxi number. I noticed that there is a history of all my check-ins that dates back to April 26th, 2010. Going back to when I first joined in January or February, I have a total of 1099 check-ins! I think I may be an oversharer (yes, I have the badge), but, hey, that’s how I roll.

That said, I find this history to be a valuable tool to keep track of time spent on different client engagements, e.g., time on-site and to get a sense of average transportation time for specific trips, e.g., Upper West Side to Tribeca and West 74th to Central Park Tennis Courts. Remember when all those management consultants tried to get people to keep journals to measure productivity. Now we do it for fun.

July 15th, 2010

Foursquare reached the 2 million user mark this week.

I noted that a lot of people had checked into the Great Lawn on Tuesday night. Was there a free concert, I wondered.

This week, the NYC foursquare community created Heatpacolypse (all of last week!) and Rainpacolypse (Tuesday the 13th). I experienced and checked into both. A fun way to share the extremities of the local weather.

July 26th, 2010

I’ve just checked into the Apple store on the upper west side. As the 13th person here, I seem to have pushed it over the fence to a trending location. It seems to trend a lot lately, though I remember not too too long ago that I was the only or one of just two or three people who had checked in here.

Another location that seems to trend a lot lately is the AMC Movie Theater. There is a strong correlation between the numerical reading on the weather channel site and the number of people checked in at the highly air conditioned movie theater… Quite a popular venue over the course of the last few scorching weeks here in NYC.

After weeks of checking in at the Central Park Tennis Center, it dawned on me that that is a perfect venue for foursquare. Lately, I find myself hanging out on warm weekend days looking for open courts and potential tennis partners. Foursquare could not be more appropriate. The only problem is that I am almost always the only one checked in there. This weekend, I did spy a second player. I immediately invited him to be my foursquare friend. Stay tuned to see whether we ever cross rackets on the court.

July 30th

Duane Reade, the NYC chain of drug stores, has asked to follow me on foursquare (and be my friend on Facebook). Personally, I found this request a little creepy… but I am tempted to accept the invite to get a sense of what they plan to do as my foursquare friend. I suspect they want to know when I’m in their store.

August 4th

Forrester released a report last week stating that 4% of U.S. online adults have used a Location Based Social Network (LBSN), with “only” 1% using them more than once a week. However… of the several million folks who are using LBSNs: 70% have four-year college or graduate degrees, the average age is 32, the average annual household income just over $100,000, and 78% are male. So… does that mean I’m behaving like a 32 year old well-educated early-adopter… guy? That may explain my social life.

September 11th

I just found out via foursquare that there’s a TJ Maxx on West 96th Street.  It showed up as near the Whole Foods up there, which is where I had dinner.  That was my first time, by the way, after seeing the organic food store trending many Sunday nights.  And, by the way, the Whole Foods offers a free coffee tumbler to those who go to customer service and show that they’ve checked in for the first time.  I did not act upon this offer, but I did take a photo of the sign, which was tucked away near the restrooms…

Well re: TJ, that’s one express stop or a 25 minute walk – not to mention being awfully close to the Central Park tennis courts. This opens up all kinds of possibilities, as Loehmann’s does not carry any linen, towels, etc. Very exciting. My mother will be proud.

September 20th

It looks like the Trader Joe’s on the Upper West Side is now open.  I noticed 12 people checked in while I was getting a slice of mushroom pizza at Freddie & Pepper’s.

October 26th

On October 17th, my iPhone was wiped and reset in an attempt to address performance issues.  That means that I need to reconnect to all of my social apps including foursquare.  I went a few hours without access and then reconnected.  Or so I thought until I realized I had logged into my first account in which I misspelled my name (typo as I do actually know the spelling of my name…).  When I realized this, I attempted to log into my more recent account.  However,  I have not yet had luck doing so.  When my email and password did not, I tried to connect via Facebook Mobile, but that did not work either.  I’m sure it can be done but have not yet sat down to take the time to make it happen.  So, the point of this embarrassing discussion of my technical travails… I feel strangely free.  I still think foursquare has lots of value and expect to reconnect.  But, in the meantime, I’m enjoying my time off.  What does that say about the adoption cycle of those who are less “passionate” than I…

In the meantime – once I reconnect to it on my iphone as well, that is  – I’ve developing a strong affinity for GetGlue, a non location based version of foursquare – for people who stay home.  Users check into entertainment activities such as a tv show, a movie or a book.  It’s a really neat way to make personal experiences social while maintaining a level of intimacy.

October 28th

I am back in the square.  Turns out I couldn’t live without it.  I need foursquare to look back on my day and remember where I went and what I did.

November 24th

I know that the upper west side is pretty crazy the night before Thanksgiving.  Cars backed up outside my window with mellifluous honking of horns.  Children being taken aside and reprimanded on every street corner.  Lines of people waiting for cupcakes at the Crumb’s bake shop next to the Equinox.  And so on.  I know that the balloons that are blown up next to the Museum of Natural History are quite a draw.  Personally, I’ve never had the patience or fortitude to wait in line to see them… nonetheless, I guess I knew there must be decent numbers of people who were, but when I turned on foursquare tonight, I saw that 342 people were checked in at the Macy’s Parade Balloon Inflation venue.  That’s crazy!

December 12th, 2010

@sterlingoptical retweeted the fact that I became mayor of their store on the upper west side

Now that I am recording the license # of each taxi I take, I feel a new kind of peace of mind, knowing that if I leave a pair of gloves in the cab, I would know which cab it was – even without a receipt.  I think this new sense of calm has contributed to the fact that I have not inadvertently left anything in a taxi in the last year.

Last weekend, I was working on a small project – around 5 hours.  On Sunday afternoon, I took a break to play tennis – it had been scheduled in advance.  I had been exchanging emails and work product with my client over the weekend and told him that the next iteration would come in the late afternoon or early evening.  As I prepared to leave the courts, I realized that my client, who follows me on foursquare, would have access to how I was spending my day – would he mind that I took three hours off to play tennis?  Oh well.

On that note, I discovered a great new place to play tennis.  When I checked in for the first time, I tweeted and facebooked and everything.  Then I wondered whether I should keep this new find closer to the vest…

I should say that foursquare is soooooo slow, it can be extraordinarily frustrating.  What is the balance between foursquare and AT&T as the cause of this frustration?  Dunno.

I continue to think that GetGlue has a lot of potential, particularly as those in the television space (content providers, etc.) become more aware of it.  Great opportunity for advertisers to encourage people to check into and/or comment on their ads.  Great opportunity for book publishers as well.  Potential tie in/partnership with shelfari.  Keep your eyes on this one.

Back to foursquare: I have become increasingly reliant on foursquare for tracking my hours on freelance projects.  Great tool!

Location Based Services as a Means to Measure Mass Transit?

Normally, my commute from West 74th Street to 200 Hudson Street takes 20-30 minutes.  It requires taking two trains, the 2 or 3 train to 14th Street and the 1 train to Canal.  I could take the 1 train all the way, but since it is local, it would take more time, so I choose to optimize in this way.

Well, my commute this morning took 60 minutes.  Fortunately, I had my iPhone with which to write a number of substantive (in fact, VERY substantive) emails, as well as water and an apple.

My first train, the Express, got stuck between 34th Street and 14th Street.  For 30 minutes, I watched Locals fly by as we, on a track that was not adjacent to the platform, sat stranded.  When I arrived at 14th Street, a 1 train arrived relatively soon.  However, once the doors were closed, and we were (seemingly) on our way, the conductor announced that we would be making express stops – the next one being Chambers Street.  Moreover, we once again, were stopped between stations.

At Chambers Street, I crossed over the bridge to the uptown platform and, finishing up my email, hopped onto an uptown train.  Alas, it was an Express, which relatively quickly took me to… 14th Street.  At 14th Street, I crossed over to a 1 train that, obediently, took me to my original destination, Canal Street.

So, what in the world does this have to do with Foursquare!  Well, because I am what some might term an oversharer (I have the badge),  I had checked in at 72nd Street and, when I finally arrived at Canal, I checked in again.  Several minutes later, as I pulled my iPhone out of my bag to check in at 200 Hudson, I took a look and saw that I had started my journey one hour ago.  Ah, rapid transit.

Going Out or Getting Glued? – the newest must-have social app

 

I’ve just met the Mayor of the digital agency where I’ve been working. She recognized me as I was eating my 4-Minute FreshDirect microwavable meal and said, “I see you’ve been checking in on foursquare.”

Game on?

Actually, she seems quite nice, and I’m not just saying that because she might read this.

Evidently, there is a little bit of history behind the mayorship here. There was someone who held the post for some time, whilst three others competed to oust him. Finally, two of the competitors gave up and stopped checking in completely. Meanwhile, he left the agency, and hence the keys were passed to the woman I met by the microwave.

As we continued to chat while she heated up her Parmesan meatballs, I asked whether she was also a user of Get Glue, which she said, seems to be especially popular among her friends on the West Coast.

From what I can tell, GetGlue is foursquare for people who don’t leave their homes/apartments. You get to check in to entertainment activities like TV shows, like them and rate them. Lordy!

Specifically, as the founders describe it on their site, “GetGlue is an innovative social recommendation network for movies, books, and music. The GetGlue website provides a recommendation stream based on personal tastes, what friends like, and what’s most popular right now. The GetGlue browser addon brings filtered friend reviews, personal recommendations, and contextual content to popular sites around the web, such as Wikipedia, Amazon, IMDB, and hundreds more.”

You can use GetGlue by visiting the GetGlue.com site, by downloading the browser add-on for use on pages around the web, or by downloading the iPhone app. When you visit pages about books, movies, music, etc. you can click thumbs-up or thumbs-down on things you like or dislike. GetGlue will then suggest books, movies, music, etc. based on your personal tastes and what your friends like.

Evidently, the online/mobile application/website experienced 800,000 ratings/check-ins in the six days following the launch of its iPhone app, which, I’m told, is a big deal. One of the founders wrote recently that the lion’s share of the 800,000 number is ratings with check-ins averaging 1-5 per minute.

I started hearing about getglue a few weeks ago and in just the last 24 hours, it’s been ALL OVER Twitter. I guess I’d better give into peer pressure and download it. Plus, it sounds good because I consume a lot of media, e.g., tv… so it should be interesting.

I don’t think it would be so good for Dennis Crowley though. He seems to use foursquare predominantly when he’s out and about – and doing exciting things like watching the Spain-Germany World Cup match. Am I jealous???? Well, ok, just a little.

Marketing an iPhone App – What a Difference a Year Makes in a Digital Media World

What a difference a year makes!

I first posted the blog entry below about marketing an iphone app on May 27th, 2009.  In it, I included all kinds of informational tidbits that make me feel nostalgic as I reread it and basically make the point – what a difference a year makes in the world of digital and mobile media.

As I watch the iPad spiral to unforeseen levels of penetration in just the first  few weeks of its life – so high that distribution abroad was delayed in an attempt to meet domestic demand.  Would we have predicted that a year ago?

As I ogle over each new HTC Droid, as the number of application stores reaches 5+, and as the number of Droid applications is expected to surpass those for iPhones this year, I thought it was worth pulling it up for old time’s sake and to notice what a difference a year makes – and also what has stayed the same. So, in the interest of time – as I have important meetings at 2pm and 4:30pm, here are a few data points for thought:

• Mobile ad sales accounted for approximately $391 million in 2009 and are forecast to reach $561 million in 2010 (Zenith Optimedia). Of course, this doesn’t begin to take into account content revenue: music, video, applications, etc. or usage charges: text messaging, data, voice (remember voice?)

• The global market for mobile applications reached $10 billion in 2009. (Didn’t see that coming in 2006!) – Juniper Research

• Apple sold 1 million iPads in 28 days and more than 2 million in less than 60 days.

• It took 74 days to sell 1 million iPhones.

• As of May 3, 2010, 12 million iPad applications had been downloaded and 1.5 million eBooks (Steve Jobs)

• There are 250,000 iphone applications – as of June 26th, 2010. Last I checked, there were 200,000 ipad apps. Given those #s and a current Android app count of 50-60,000, there is no way – in my opinion – that Android apps will overtake Apple in 2010.Any major – or even minor – brand is remiss – I would suggest – if they do not have or plan to launch a mobile application.

• While some predicted that there would be 150,000 Android applications by the end of 2010, the number is currently closer to 60,000.  That may provide insight into the assertion by a Motorola exec during NYC Internet Week that WAP sites are superior to apps – though, in fairness, each has its advantages and disadvantages.

• iPhone users are more likely to use apps than websites; that’s flipped for other smart phone users.

• 65,000 Android phones ship daily (Eric Schmidt, May 17, 2010 via AndroPhones.com)

• Android phones were not around a year ago

• Unlike iPhones, Android phones have multiple manufacturers including Motorola, HTC, LG, Samsung and Sony Ericsson, and are available through multiple carriers.

• The term is no longer “iPhone App” but rather “Mobile App.”

• The term is no longer “iPhone” but rather “Smartphone.”

• Smartphone penetration reached 21% of wireless subscribers at the end of 2010 and is expected to pass the 50% mark in 2011. (Nielsen)

• Nearly three quarters of all physicians own smartphones. (Manhattan Research, Q1 2010) – that’s a penetration level nearly four times that of the general population!

• 14% of mobile customers have downloaded an app in the last 30 days. BlackBerry, Palm and Windows Mobile users have between 10 and 14 apps on their phones, with RIM on the low end of the scale. Android users average 22 apps, compared to iPhone owners who devour, as Steve Smith of Mediapost puts it, 37 apps.

• As of May 2010, Apple is larger than Microsoft.

(For more mobile facts and observations, visit my post: Mobile Facts Change So Fast! – a repository for key mobile stats)

And now to our formerly scheduled blog posting:

POSTED MAY 27TH, 2009

I recently attended one of Alan Brody’s iBreakfasts – “iPhone Apps & Mobile Platforms.” The panelists were Eric Litman from MediaLets, Ken Engels from Curious Brain and Alex Muller from Slifter. And it of course, got me thinking about iPhone apps. So here are some of my thoughts:

FUN iPHONE FACTS

How Many Phones?

There are currently 40MM iPhone and iTouch devices (15)

17MM iPhones had been sold as of March 2009. (1)

Nearly 4MM iPhones were sold in the 1st quarter of 2009 – representing growth of nearly 125% vs. 2008. (8)

During the first three months of iPhone 3G availability (3Q 2008), seven million phones were sold, exceeding the six million first-generation phones sold in 1 1/4 years. (8)

26% of U.S. smart phone users have iPhones (35% have Blackberries). (3)

Where Are They?

iPhone applications are available in 77 countries. (7)

There are 500MM people with mobile phones in India…(5)

How Many Apps?

As of April 24th, 2009, 1 billion iPhone applications had been downloaded – 9 months after the launch of the store. (4)

On June 8th, Apple announced that there were 50,000 applications in the iTunes Store – up from 35,000 in April (7). At the OMMA Video conference on June 17th, I heard estimates of 54,000 by Gordon Borrell and 57,500 by Marketspace Senior Advisor Andrew Heyward.

As of April 15, 2009, 25,000 different iPhone apps had been downloaded. (6)

As of June 12th, 2009, 15 of the top 20 free and paid apps (top 10 free; top 10 paid) were games

The iPhone Applications Store model of centralized distribution is unprecedented.

It takes one to two weeks for a new application to be listed by Apple (if approved).(9)

What’s Up with UrbanSpoon?

UrbanSpoon was one of the top applications downloaded in 2008.

Following favorable reviews from Macworld, TechCrunch, and even the New York Times, the free app racked up 300,000 downloads and over 6,000,000 shakes within the first 10 days.

In October 2008, UrbanSpoon began selling advertising on the application through a platform/ad network called AdMob that specializes in mobile advertising.

UrbanSpoon had already achieved 1MM downloads when it was approached by Apple to be featured in the Apple iPhone commercial. One month after the November commercial hit the airwaves, UrbanSpoon’s downloads had jumped to 2.2MM. (10)

The UrbanSpoon iPhone application was originally introduced to drive traffic to its website. Its founders estimate that if they had charged for the application, e.g., $1.00, downloads would have been reduced by 90%. (11)

UrbanSpoon was recently purchased by IAC.

How Much Are They?

Most iPhone applications are paid apps. (12)

However, the top 10 free applications made up 7% of downloads as of December 2008. (13)

iPhone paid apps range from $.99 to at least $6.99 (e.g., BeamMe Pro). (14) The average price is $1.00 – $1.50. (12)

Apple takes 30% commission for paid applications. Apple’s estimated revenue from app sales is undisclosed, but estimates range from $70 million to $160 million. (14)

What’s Next?

Web 3.0 is here. The iPhone 3.0 enables in-application purchases (7)

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MARKETING AN iPHONE APPLICATION

ASO and ASM:

I have coined two new phrases: Application Store Optimization (ASO) and Application Store Marketing (ASM). These are core elements of iPhone application marketing.

Where do people go when they are looking for information and answers? Google – the “Q-Tip” of Search. Where do people go when looking for an iPhone application? The App Store – the centralized, exclusive source for iPhone Applications.

There are two goals: (1) turn up high on the results page of an app store keyword search (e.g., subway map, weather) and (2) be part of a “Top 10” list (e.g., games). 80% of downloads come from the top 100 applications. (16)

If you can’t accomplish this organically, then go for Application Search Marketing (ASM) by paying to be a “Featured” application. As with SEM, ASM can be used to jump start organic search.

The key concept to remember is that popularity breeds popularity. Once you achieve a high ranking, take advantage of it. The one time you are guaranteed inclusion in a Top 25 list is when you are introduced, so support your application when you launch it, and focus your efforts.

If you are going to spend money advertising your application, then you are better off with one heavy push, i.e., buy your advertising all in one day rather than by sprinkling it around.

The “What’s New” and “Top” lists are said to have rolling 24 hour windows. However, Apple has been continuously changing its algorithms.

Other Applications

A good strategy is to get included in other applications. This can be done by purchasing ad inventory through a third party or through partnerships. Creators of gaming applications often maintain a portfolio of games, using each one as a platform to promote the others. Whatever your application, it’s important to target people who like a similar or complementary application.

Website Promotion

If you have an online presence, you can promote your mobile application on your own website. This can include deep links that can be emailed or texted to a mobile device or that links to the iTunes Store.

Social Media and Editorial Reviews

Develop a strategy for getting positive coverage: editorial and user reviews, blogs, Twitter, etc.

Consider Giving It Away

As with other content providers, the developer of an iPhone application is faced with a tradeoff: (a) give it away to get broader adoption (b) sell it to get revenue and recoup costs. Consider giving away your initial version; it will get downloaded by early adopters who are sure to give you feedback in the form of reviews within the Application Store. Once you’ve refined the application and gotten some word of mouth, transition to a paid model (grandfathering the early adopters). Additionally, you can give your first release away for free and then charge for the 2nd generation premium or “pro’ version. BeamMe went from free to $6.99.

OBSERVATIONS

iPhone applications are characterized by the early fervor of a new space, and there are low barriers to entry for a new iPhone application

More than one in four smart phone users have iPhones; Verizon needs to take this situation seriously as it evaluates whether to reach an arrangement with iPhone once AT&T’s exclusive contract expires. A Blackberry representative recently told me that because only 7.4% of computers are Apple computers, there is limited incentive to create software for Mac users, e.g., a working program for synchronizing a Blackberry with a MacBook. However, if Blackberry can’t offer a viable solution, Verizon will lose customers to AT&T and iPhone, despite the fact that Verizon offers dramatically better phone courage. If Verizon continues to let this happen, they are missing a big opportunity.

HOW’D THEY DO?

In early 2006, I wrote a presentation about the mobile space for a multi-platform publisher that included forecasts of mobile advertising and marketing revenue by a range of media pundits. This is what they forecast for 2009:
– Visiongain: $602MM (55% compound annual growth rate)
– RBC Capital: $1.5 Bn (101% CAGR)
– McKinsey: $250-$750MM
– eMarketer: $434MM (20% CAGR)

(As it turns out, mobile advertising revenue for 2009 was $391 million – Source: ZenithOptimedia, “Advertising Expenditure Forecasts,” provided to eMarketer, December 8, 2009 – it seems that eMarketer wins the forecasting contest.)

The wide-ranging projections could not have foreseen the iPhone application revolution, that provides increased opportunity for paid listings, sponsorships, cross-promotion, affiliate marketing and display advertising. That said, the majority of mobile revenue comes from text messaging. (12)

Sources: Eric Litman, Alex Muller, Ken Engels and Alan Brody, Network World, Zueo, Christian Science Monitor, Articles Base, eMarketer, Tata, Steve Wax of Campfire Media, Stuart Farr of Not for Tourists

(1) March 24th, 2009
(2) January 28th, 2009 – while some of the difference between the 15MM and the 17MM numbers may be due to purchases made between January and March, some is likely attributable to iPhone owners who have purchased more than one iPhone – likely trading up from version 1 to version 2
(3) March 2009 – eMarketer, Skype survey
(4) 1 billion as of April 24th, 2009 – Apple.com – remember that iTouch users also download applications –> approximately 22 per device
(5) Tata – 92nd Street Y panel, June 2009
(6) Are there 10,000 iPhone applications that have never been downloaded?
(7) 35,000 as of April 24th, 2009 – Apple.com
(8) Apple financial report
(9) June 8, 2009. Recent applicant
(10) Ethan Lowry, founding member of UrbanSpoon, one of the most downloaded iPhone applications of 2008. Mobile Crunch, December 5th, 2008.
(11) October 30, 2008 – Seattle 2.0, Kevin Leneway
(12) iBreakfast panel
(13) Mobile Crunch, December 5th, 2008 – estimate by Greg Kuparak
(14) ClickZ, May 22, 2009
(15) Apple, June 8, 2009
(16) Gordon Borrell, CEO, Borrell Associates, Inc. – OMMA Video Conference, June 17, 2009

Motorola Droid X Heats Up Competition with Apple – Guest Article

This article, first published on June 21st, is by Ethan Lyon, Senior Writer of Sparxoo, an agency specializing in digital strategy, branding, and marketing.

Google and Motorola will create some sparks with the timely announcement of their new Droid X, merely 24 hours before Apple’s new iPhone 4 in-store release on June 23rd. Coincidence? I think not. It is the latest in a battle to compete with the smartphone market’s top dog, Research in Motion.

Apple’s clearly ahead of Google, with 28 percent of the US smartphone market share compared to Android’s 9 percent. According to one Morgan Stanley analyst, Apple has potential to grow from around 30 million users today to nearly 100 million total users worldwide by the end of 2011.

The Android could give Steve Jobs worry though, as the Motorola Droid X sports many of the same features as the iPhone 4 and uses an arguably faster and larger carrier, Verizon. Should Apple be shaking in its boots? Tech experts weigh-in on the Apple / Android debate:

Motorola Droid X’s new features rival that of Apple’s iPhone 4, while Apple’s release has been tainted by poor reviews and embarrassing tech malfunctions.

“Apple’s stint with iPhone 4 has been already tainted by negative stories and all sorts of rumors. At Apple’s WWDC we saw how iPhone 4 failed to connect to Internet due to heavy WiFi congestion… The ad placed on the Verizon’s website indicates that Droid X would be loaded with some fantabulous features including 4.3-inch display device, HDMI output and Android 2.1 OS. It will also have FWVGA 854 x 480-resolution screen, giving a crystal clear image. The Droid X features apparently stand toe-to-toe with Apple’s iPhone 4.0.” [USA News Week Blog]

Motorola Droid X still has the Verizon advantage over iPhone’s exclusive AT&T contract and could spell long-term disaster for Cupertino.

“Apple can withstand the calls to move to multiple operators for the moment, but if Android keeps growing quickly Cupertino may have to consider making its device available in the United States on more than one network. Advantage: Android.” [PC World]

Apple’s iPhone has one operating system across a few devices, whereas Android has many versions of its OS platform for many phones — making it confusing for the end-user to determine whether their phone receives an update

“Apple has just one operating system available for sale at a time, and until recently it made iOS updates available to almost all of its older hardware… [Android] suffers from a multiplicity of available devices with new and old versions of the hardware, including Android 1.6, 2.1 and the upcoming 2.2. That can get to be confusing for users, since you have to figure out which operating system you’re phone has, whether it’s going to get upgrades, and which features you may be missing.” [PC World]

Motorola Droid X will debut a mere 24 hours after the iPhone 4 in-store release — making it a newer, shiner and likely more popular phone on the block.

“July 19th is the release date of the Motorola Droid X that has been floating around the Internet.  At that time, the X will become the supreme king Android based phone, and one can’t help but wonder what will happen to yesterday’s ‘Incredible’ phone… All we do know is this – Droid X mustn’t get too comfortable on his throne.  In a few short weeks some other phone manufacturer will come out with something newer, faster, and ‘better’ at which point it will be forgotten.” [CNM News]

Life as a Game – The Visions of Dennis Crowley and Jesse Schell

Now that foursquare is cracking down on “cheating,” it won’t let me officially check in at the fruit stand outside my apartment. Instead, my iPhone informs me that I am too far away from the cart. Is it possible that I created the venue from inside my apartment? I don’t believe so. Unfortunately, the functionality of foursquare is limited by the GPS and other geo-location capabilities of the handheld devices.

On a related note, the founders of foursquare suspect that Dodgeball, their first geolocation game, was ahead of its time. When it was created, the means of checking in was text messaging.

I am now foursquare friends with one of its founders, which means that I can see how he personally utilizes it. Thus far, he seems to check-in predominantly at social venues or when doing something social or interesting with the 4Sq team. When Dodgeball was created, the initial purpose – I am told by a woman I met at Lower East Side birthday gathering – was to invite others to join you at a location. It has now become, she feels, about announcing where you are. And, she sadly mused, the initial function will become less useful as the base gets broader.

When Dennis spoke the other night, he said that he was greatly inspired by Nike Plus in developing foursquare and by the idea of (a) making life a game and (b) providing virtual rewards for real actions. What is the value of getting a badge… well, really nothing except that “I did and you didn’t.” And the impact of creating a badge is that the foursquare game influences the real life actions of its players. As I observed personally in my first blog about using foursquare, the Gym Rat badge can be earned by working out 10 times. That motivates people to work out. The pizza badge is earned by checking in to a certain number of pizza venues.

In addition, foursquare can be programmed to provide badges or rewards or recognition for the shout-outs that accompany your check-in. For example, if a sports fan made a Celtics comment in his or her shout-out, she earned a Celtics badge. So many possibilities…

By the by, Dennis’ comments about making life a game and influencing real life behavior via these kinds of rewards systems have a lot in common with Carnegie Mellon Professor Jesse Schell’s “Beyond Facebook” talk at G4 Dice 2010 about a world of game development which will emerge from the popular “Facebook Games” era.

Games, says Schell, are invading the real world — and the runaway popularity of Farmville and Guitar Hero is just the beginning. The future, he predicts, will be one in which 1-ups and experience points break out of the box, as it were, and into every part of our daily lives.  His talk definitely worth viewing.

It’s Heee-rrre: Hyper-Local Targeting

6 months ago I wrote that the next most important trend in digital and social media would be hyper-local targeting (or micro-geotargeting, if you will). At that time, the poster child was Yelp! With Yelp and a handy-dandy GPS-enabled smart phone, you could walk out of your office and ask the Yelp! application to tell you the closest place to get your keys copied or have a manicure or find out whether there are any dance clubs on the Upper West Side for your friend who wants you to throw her a bachelorette party. A neat concept in June 2009.

The concept did not, by any means, start in 2009. Back in early 2006, in a report I wrote about the mobile landscape, I included the practice of targeted SMS mailings in which a retailer such as Subway could send a text message to a consumer passing by the store at around noon offering a right-place, right-time promotional code for a lunch special. The concept was perfect. How much closer to recency could you get. The logistics were a little clumsy or perhaps hypothetical or vague – involving opt-in mailing lists and limited #s of messages per month from a community of 3rd party advertisers, but the idea was exciting.

I also read, at the time, about a practice in Vegas, whereby your hotel would ask you to sign in via your mobile device when you landed at the airport to expedite your check-in. The hotel was then able to track you as you moved about the strip and send you messages luring you back on-site with offers of free meals if you wondered off to another casino. A little creepy, but pretty cool.

Then, a few years ago, Google introduced the ability to keep track of your friends (or children, as my sister-in-law enthusiastically observed) via Google Maps and the GPS chips on their phones. Slightly creepy, again, but reminded me of the magic map in the first Harry Potter book, so, again, kind of neat – though I did not participate, in part because few, if any of my friends knew about this.

Fast forward to the new decade. I’ve been using UrbanSpoon since it first burst onto the scene via the iPhone commercial and have dabbled with Yelp! on occasion. In addition, I’ve become a big fan of the iPhone MobileMe functionality whereby you can locate your phone using its gps chip should it be stolen or lost. And I’ve been using the GPS function of Google Maps for ages to find myself, find my way out of Central Park, find my way to a restaurant a few blocks away in East Hampton, etc. It all started with my Blackberry, at which time, I found it to be a very neat feature. And, now, with the iPhone, the graphics make it even better as you watch your little blue dot get closer to the little red pin of your target destination.

And now, I have been introduced to “FourSquare” – an iPhone and also Droid application. With this application, you sign-in to a location when you arrive. This act then sends a notification to your friends as to where you are and also tells you which of your friends are at the same location – as well as telling you who is the “mayor” of that venue, meaning that he or she is there the most often. Well, the implications of this application for marketing – both local and behavioral are tremendous – as you can see from the discussion around Chris Brogan’s posting on American Express’ Open Forum entitled: “Get Ahead of the Location Game.” (The link to this article was sent to me by a friend WHILE I was writing this posting!)

The FourSquare application is not yet high profile as far as I can tell, though I am am sure it will come up many times during Social Media Week next week. I heard about it from a recent grad on the Program Committee at the Harvard Club and found that Matt Blank, CEO of Showtime was already aware of at, whereas a senior executive at a major ad agency was not. So I predict that it is something that will be become better known in the next few months. And, of course, it will be come more powerful with more participation.

Some people will scoff at the start, finding it to be odd that you would want to share that information with others – these are the same people who scoffed at Facebook when I joined in 2006 and now spend 6 hours a day with it. And, as with Facebook, I will be careful as to the people with whom I choose to share this info – likely friends and Frolleagues. (Frolleagues are colleagues with whom you are friendly enough to connect on Facebook).

As with Facebook, by the way, a not so ideal impact of the application is that I am regularly reminded that a Frolleague of mine goes to the gym once or twice a day while I… well I go less frequently.

In addition to signing in to locations and tracking your friends’ moves throughout the day, FourSquare invites you to comment on nearby venues – it gives you a list of options based on your GPS – and to read tips from others. It also gives you visibility into twitter feeds from people in your nearby location.

As I was writing this blog in my head, I logged onto Yelp! on my iPhone and, of course, they have the same functionality in terms of signing into a location, so there seems to be a coming together of Yelp! and FourSquare. I am not sure of the business models of these apps, but the potential is huge and, after all, Google didn’t have a business model for nearly six years!